Last week you reminded us of Biblical characters that may have suffered negatively from overconfidence.
Last week you reminded us of Biblical characters that may have suffered negatively from overconfidence. Recent research (Larrick 2004) offers encouragement by showing our ability to overcome bias is improved through education, training, and development.
Larrick proposed that the most successful de-biasing strategies tend to be context-specific, and bias-specific. For example, research on overconfidence bias found that intensive, personalized feedback is effective in improving decision-making (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff, 1980), however, only in the short term. In other words, we have to be reminded! Soll and Klayman (2004) found that a simple prompt of encouragement for the decision-maker to “consider the opposite” of whatever they were deciding reduced overconfidence. Researchers also found a de-biasing affect when using: (a) group decision-making instead of individual, (b) training in statistical reasoning, and (c) making people accountable for their decisions (Lerner & Tetlock, 1990; Larrick, 2004).
Look over the Bible characters described by your classmates in last week’s Discussion Board and select two or three. Tell us what you would say to this Biblical character, if you were there, that would meet the “intensive, personalized” standard to potentially de-bias this character’s decision-making.
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Answer preview Last week you reminded us of Biblical characters that may have suffered negatively from overconfidence.
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