Appropriately Apply Simple Forecasting Assignment
As a healthcare administrator and operations professional, you will need to be comfortable utilizing a number of well-established methodologies when it comes to generating forecasts. We routinely forecast sales, revenues, and expenses. It is important to keep in mind that forecasting isn’t a precise science, since it routinely involves the inclusion of history and judgment. As you know, historical performance isn’t always indicative of future performance. Judgments are assumptions grounded in one’s experience, so they aren’t always accurate. Changes in demand and policy can certainly have an impact for original forecasts and serve as a catalyst for reforecasting. You’ve probably noticed that several publicly traded companies are forced to adjust their earnings forecasts based on the trended performance in the company’s sales, revenues, and or expenses. Like many other industries, the healthcare industry is in a constant state of flux. We experience an all too familiar pattern of “peaks and valleys” in the prices and volumes of goods and services. New services may start out in high demand, only to wane; whereas well-established services will falter only to experience a revival.
In order to understand the nature of these patterns, managers need to understand the theory of supply and demand. While we, as operations professionals, have to focus our energy on managing the day-to-day operations of the business, we need to appreciate the perspective that supply and demand can provide in explaining organizational and industry phenomenon (Lee, 2015).
In order to fully appreciate the value that comes with forecasting sales, revenues, and expenses and correctly analyzing the supply and demand in the decision-making process, you will be expected to complete the following end-of-chapter problems and mini-cases:
Chapter 9: Case 9.2, Forecasting the Demand for Transfusions (p. 150)), 9.3, 9.7 (pp. 151-154; Lee textbook)
Chapter 10: 10.2, How Large Will the Shortage of Primary Care Physicians Be? (Create supply and demand graph using Microsoft Word or Excel; pp. 163-164, Lee textbook), 10.3, 10.6 (pp. 166-169; Lee textbook)
Unit Learning Outcomes
ULO 1. Use demand and supply analysis to make simple forecasts. (CLO 6 and 7)
ULO 2. Appropriately apply simple forecasting tools. (CLO 6 and 7)
ULO 3. Examine factors that contribute to a shift in demand and supply curves. (CLO 1, 3, and 4)
ULO 4. Interpret demand and supply curves. (CLO 1 and 7)
Directions
The students are expected to carefully read the assignment instructions, then thoroughly and explicitly address each question. Microsoft Excel will be used to perform the mathematical computations and graphs; however, the problems and their corresponding responses should be written up in a Microsoft Word document. Your responses to the assigned mini-case studies should also be included in the same document. IMPORTANT: Make certain that there is a detailed description of how the calculations were performed. You will also need to include an interpretation of the results. While there is no minimum number of references that need to be utilized to support the completion of this assignment, it is generally understood that outside sources, including the text, will be necessary to complete the problems. The document must adhere to the APA writing style in terms of using in-text citations and the listing of sources on the references page. The Microsoft Word document and Excel spreadsheet are to be uploaded under the correct unit assignment page.